Why is this conflict in Ukraine seems to stretch indefinitely?
Let’s hear another Slav leader, and not Putin, on the subject:
“I know what awaits us. As soon as Vladimir Putin finishes his business in Sieversk, Bakhmut and Soledar, then on the second line Sloviansk-Kramatorsk-Avdeevka, his proposal will follow. If they (West) don’t accept it, we will all go to hell.”–Serbian president Aleksandar Vučić.
Some experts also believe that Russians are eyeing Odessa. One, it psychologically is a huge boost for Russian people. Two, it would afford Russia complete control of Ukraine’s entire Black Sea coast.
Now don’t tell me you doubt Russia is winning the war.
When a leader begins sacking his inner circle, the end is near. So happened to Adolf Hitler; same is now happening to Zelensky.
The Ukrainian leader who is doing the bidding for the West, has just fired his attorney general, Irina Venediktova, as well as the head of the SBU (Security Agency, successor to the Soviet KGB), Ivan Bakanov.
This is also much like Stalin whose paranoia devoured his own inner circle.
Oh, yes you also believe that NATO, world’s most muscular security apparatus, won’t come up second in this proxy war.
America is exhausting the supply of its Javelin anti-tank missiles; a quarter of its Stinger stocks. UK’s defense secretary has admitted that his country, in its zeal, is running out of anti-tank missile. The Czech Republic is not left with much to send. France has given up its production of Caesar guns for 18 months.
Now NATO has this crazy idea of donating rifles that need 155mm ammunitions which are running out fast. If Ukraine does fire 3,000 155mm shells a day, the entire US output of a year would be over within weeks.
So what happens when Putin has secured his goals in Ukraine?
Almost certainly, Putin would offer peace terms.
He would want West to accept the loss of Donbass and Crimea, and possibly Odessa. And oh yes, he would insist on Ukraine’s neutrality and denazification. There is no way the West would accede to these terms. It would refuse. (Anyway, after the 2015 Minsk Agreement’s double-cross, its unlikely the Russians would take the West on face value.)
Ukraine is like an albatross around West’s neck it can’t get rid of.
Where does it leave Europe?
Well, the West, that is largely the US and Europe, are stuck on Ukraine and Putin; the same is for UK.
The US has all along wanted to weaken Russia so that China, its rival for world’s hegemony, is weakened—and Europe is firmly into vassalage.
The United States has always feared the integration of Europe and Asia—the Eurasia—and uses its puppets to retain the dominance of NATO on security matters in the Old Continent.
It can’t afford for Europe to rely on Asia for its energy and other trade needs. Only Germany amongst the Western nations is a manufacturing giant.
And manufacturing needs energy. Germany, at present, uses only 20% of Russia energy—but coal is 40% and nuclear 10%—but they can’t hurt Greta so they want more gas which is “greener” but mostly comes from Russia.
It’s hard to be Green and hate Russia at the same time.
So it was always against the interest of the United States to NOT have the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline functional from Russia to Germany over the Ukrainian land. The erstwhile leaders of the US and Germany, Donald Trump and Angela Merkel, had agreed on a LNG port, at the cost of a billion dollars, but then there was a change of regime in the two nations.
So, Germany needs energy for its homes, offices and manufacturing plants. Besides, one-third of world’s potash is produced by Russia and Belarus. Then Russia is world’s number 1 and 2 in wheat and oil.
So the US did succeed on its agenda on Nord Stream 2 but its policy of encirclement of Russia by NATO bases has received a critical blow in Ukraine.
So, does it serve Putin if the war goes into the winter?
It surely does.
The longer the Ukraine crisis goes, the bigger are the chances of fissures in Western ranks.
As it is, the recession is setting in. And then there is the fear of Europeans going cold and hungry during the Christmas. The streets could be full of angry people with placards and loudspeakers.
We have seen how UK has plunged into a political crisis: Its prime minister has been “stabbed” by the political class even though there is no clear picture of who would replace Boris Johnson.
I don’t think though that Putin would turn off the energy supply to Europe. As its foreign minister Sergey Lavrov recently said: A wounded predator must never be provoked into wild actions—it’s better to accompany it to the graveyard.
One of oft-repeated geopolitical wisdom from Napoleon for leaders in war is: Never interrupt your enemies when they make a mistake. A litany of such mistakes by West, piling on sanctions on Russia, freezing its assets, pumping Ukraine with men, money and weapons, has only drawn its rivals closer. Russia has nothing to gain by stopping the suicide. For its no longer a question if Eurasia would happen—for Iran, a big piece of the jigsaw, has fallen in place—but how quickly it does.
It won’t be the same world we inherited from our parents and grandparents.
