On Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, my views, as always, are intended to defog your impressions from the rubbish you read in the mainstream media.
Of course, the 13-point agreement states that both need to cease hostilities in southern Lebanon; a UN peacekeeping force would monitor it; that any violation by either side would be end to this pause on war; that a call on this would be taken by a committee which, as you should rightly guess, would be headed by the United States.
(Within a day of truce, both sides are accusing each other of violations, so here you are…)
No-one believes this ceasefire would last or the 60-day interregnum provided to both sides to pull out their boots and weapons would happen. It is merely a deception by the two to regroup and return with force.
Israelis needed it because their army is not used to fighting a prolonged battle which is now in its 14th month. The reservists it is calling upon are not turning up for duty. It has suffered losses of men and material and by its own admission, 60,000 of its citizens have fled northern Israel which is now a wasteland. Tens of thousands of Israeli settlers are often forced into bunkers. Blackouts are common. When it strikes Beirut, the missiles from Hezbollah reach Tel Aviv and beyond.
Hezbollah needed to regroup and retain the popular support which it still has in Lebanon.The wanton destruction by the Israelis was causing untold misery in southern Lebanon which happens to be their stronghold. Returning residents in southern Lebanon are touched to find a note of thanks from the Hezbollahs with a wad of cash.
Further, Hezbollah didn’t want the Maronites and Sunni parties in the country to make a meal out of people’s misery and turn the masses against them. So, for the time being, they haven’t linked their ceasefire until one in Gaza is reached.
That Hezbollahs still brought the Israelis on to the negotiating table should tell you something. Imagine, the Zionist supremacists negotiating with a branded “terrorist” organization! Israel’s ground invasion has failed to capture any land. Till yesterday, the Israelis were promising complete annihilation of Hezbollah. But it never attacked critical Lebanese infrastructure such as airports, bridges, power supplies —an unsaid acknowledgement of the ferocity with which the enemy could retaliate.
Still Benjamin Netanyahu is claiming victory in ceasefire which is such a nonsense. If Hezbollahs were truly broken, Israel wouldn’t have signed the ceasefire. Period. With Lebanese returning to their hearth and home in abundant glee, waving flags of Hezbollah and posters of martyred Hassan Nasrullah, Israelis are asking: If they are beaten how are they so happy?
All three of Israel’s stated goals: (a) dismantling Hezbollah; (b) return of settlers in north; (c) and reshaping of political landscape in neighbourhood hasn’t been achieved. Now we learn of a poll conducted by Israel’s Channel 13 News in the last few hours: As many as 61 percent of Israelis concede their army has not been able to beat Hezbollah!
What about the principal actors who are the backbone of the two sides, Tehran and the United States? Tehran all along hasn’t been keen on a wider war. It prefers agony in instalments for Tel Aviv. It also wishes to avoid a direct face-off against the United States—same with the latter who are wary of oil trade taking a hit now that even the Houthis are proving insurmountable in Red Sea.
In a way this is also Tehran’s way of demonstrating to the president-elect Donald Trump how it could escalate and de-escalate in the region and thus need be treated with caution during his tenure.
No sooner did the ceasefire take effect, Israel and the US reignited the war in Syria, another vector of the Axis of Resistance which they prefer to call Shiite Crescent. The CIA-propped and Al-Qaeda affiliate HTS terrorists have gone into an overdrive in Aleppo against the Assad regime. It is to take control of supply routes so that Tehran doesn’t beef up Hezbollah and Israel recovers its breath before the next round of hostilities begin.
The truth is is this ceasefire could be over before you are through with this piece. You can’t be calling the other party a terrorist and still stick by the ceasefire. The two simply don’t go together. If the idea is Israel escapes the trap and avoid death by a million cuts, it simply is a long shot.
