All of us would agree that a Kamala Harris was more likely to lead us to World War III and a Nuclear War: This alone should make us welcome Donald Trump.
But then there is still 10 weeks of interregnum before Trump is in the White House—and so are Republicans in Senate and House—on January 20, 2025. How Democrats would love for Trump to inherit a world from which there is no escaping a catastrophic war!
So let’s spin the crystal-ball of reason and try to foresee what is really possible in the two war theatres of Ukraine and Middle East.
Clown Prince and his toys
Vladimir Zelensky, the comedian who has wrought this tragedy on his nation and its people, has lately been demanding those long-range missiles (ATACMS) from the US which could hit up to 300km. The United Kingdom and France, likewise, have Storm Shadow and Scalp missiles of similar reach.
(Germany, long before the internal chaos of its election, had refused to supply its own Taurus, a low-flying cruise missile of a 500km range, to Ukraine.)
So, the theory is, Ukraine with these toys would be able to circumvent the jaw-dropping air-defence system of their enemy and hit airfield and naval bases, logistical hubs, energy infrastructure etc deep inside Russia. Presently, the buffer of eastern Ukraine, much of which is under Russian control, isn’t letting effect such a deep strike.
Ukraine’s demand has found support in NATO and a few European nations such as Finland and the Czech Republic. The United States and the UK so far have been ambivalent.
Let’s say that the Democrats cook up some emergency to overcome legal restraint or people’s protest and does supply these weapons to Kiev. It’s cohorts in Europe do likewise.
The trouble is it would make no material difference to Ukraine’s fate. Wars, without boots on the ground, don’t win you anything. Ukraine is out of men. PERIOD. The United States or Europe aren’t sending their men — which aren’t in the numbers anyway that the Russians already have—and fooling your masses is a task which even a sinful media can’t manage. For How do you convince your citizenry to slip into underground bomb shelters, i.e if you have them in sufficient numbers, in a war with which they have to do nothing?
Zelensky understands the dilemma of his puppeteers. So he is singing a different tune: Give Russia’s frozen 300 billion dollars assets for me to buy choicest weapons. Implying, he could buy up ATACMS, Storm Shadow or Scalp in some other name and claim it’s not from his masters. Only caveat, such “grey-market” weapons won’t be operable without Western handlers. And Putin has said, in such a scenario, don’t rule out a nuclear strike from Russia.
If the US is holding its horses for this very reason in Ukraine, it’s presumed they have no such compunction on Iran. But in truth, they have. On October 1, Iran could fire its big missiles inside Israel and made nonsense of Tel Aviv’s much touted air-defence systems. And when Israel retaliated on October 28, it could only fire its missiles from outside Iran. Apparently Tehran’s air defense system, surely manned by Russia, didn’t let them sneak through.
So Iran appears a very, very different fish from the unarmed, outgunned, outnumbered Israel’s neighbours. It’s size and people are nearly ten times of Israel. Their small sample size in attack and defense suggests a weaponry far more lethal than presumed thus far. Benjamin Netanyahu would love to drag the United States to finish off Iran once for all but even the military voices from Washington are sceptical they would be of much use.
And that, as I said, is because of a simple logic. You don’t win wars without boots on the ground. And if you do put boots, a Vietnam, Afghanistan, Syria and even Iraq happens. Air strikes could show your firepower: littered rubbles, cluttered human bones and flying flesh but that’s about it. Ground invasion and winning is a different beast as one sees in Gaza and Lebanon presently. Hamas is nowhere close to being eliminated and Israel is losing men in thousands in its invasion in Southern Lebanon which you don’t get to read in your mainstream media. If you don’t believe me, you would in a few months time when Hezbollahs would still be bombing northern Israel.
Yet, Democrats won’t mind!
Yet, Democrats, let’s say, won’t mind. They never had the interest of America or the world at heart anyway. They don’t need to win war—only make it uglier so that Donald Trump doesn’t withdraw without a loss of face, a terrible thing for a Wild West macho who doesn’t begin his day without threatening someone or the other. So if Netanyahu and Zelensky are losing anyway, let Trump be the fall guy.
This is what the world must fear in next 10 weeks. Russia and Iran could be provoked to take some extreme action which puts masses in Europe and Middle East, not to say the oil refineries which run the world, at risk. The military-industrial complex of the US would have a win-win deal, never mind if Harris has lost and Trump has won.
On the other hand, let’s say this situation doesn’t come to a pass. Donald Trump inherits US and World as it is at the moment: The two wars largely being reduced to attritional affairs. Don’t take Trump for his words that he would end the war—its purely a bluster from a demagogue.
Why would Russia be on the negotiating table when it has all the aces? And if Russia insists on its terms what a gut blow it would be to NATO and a loss of face to Trump? Vice versa, Russia agreeing to a “fair term” would make Putin a despised figure to his own masses. And who is the one to trust Washington any longer after how Minsk accords are now proven to be just a ruse to arm Ukraine to the teeth? Russia is so close to reshaping the world and ending West’ hegemony and its military aura—why would Putin abandon it now?
If NATO loses face, Trump won’t mind. He never liked it anyway. And if the US’ goal always has been that Europe doesn’t get united, it’s accomplished already for Russia and the rest of Europe are now two hostile camps. You have built up Russia as a perennial enemy; you can’t act buddy overnight and expose to your citizenry what a sham you and your puppet media all along have been.
Now the Middle East: Could Trump bring peace in this despairing region? Why would Iran and its proxies trust the man who walked out of JCPOA? And how would Iran hold its head high among Hezbollahs and Hamas and Houthis and all those auxiliaries in Syria and Iraq? All this when the rotten monarchies of Jordan and Saudi Arabia, and the sissy Sisi of Egypt, are being swept away in the tide of history.
And why would Netanyahu accept a two-nation solution and write the death sentence for his nation and himself? He has chosen to ride a tiger and there is no getting of. That Israel would still not survive is a different matter.
All that Trump could do, and it’s in his interests, is to withdraw US from these two war theatres: He had promised his audience he would save those hundreds of billions of tax-payers dollars going to these wars for America’s working class. He can’t be seen walking the same old beaten path traversed by Biden and Harris who didn’t put “America First.” And if the US walks out, Ukraine and Israel are over next morning.
I suspect he would surely do it with Ukraine; as for Israel, those who fund Trump might not agree. Trump could either bow to them or secure his legacy as the one who saved humanity. He has survived death once; why not you do what you must do before the next bullet arrives as is the fate of recalcitrant US presidents?
