In last few days, I have received dozens of questions from my friends, both in media and otherwise.
Below is a synthesis which should clear a lot of mist.
I begin with a historical incident, thereafter its FAQs to the benefits of my friends and readers.
Without much ado, the historical incident:
On February 14, 1945, while the WW2 was winding down, the US president Franklin D. Roosevelt went aboard the USS Quincy at the Great Bitter Lake in the Suez Canal.
He had a secret meeting arranged with Saudi Arabia’s king Abdulaziz Ibn Saud, by his ambassador William A. Eddy — secret to the extent that Roosevelt even hid it from his greatest wartime ally Winston Churchill, the prime minister of the United Kingdom.
Roosevelt, later told the Congress: “I learnt more about the whole problem of Arabia, the Moslems and the Jewish problem in 5 minutes by talking with Ibn Saud than I could have learned in exchange of dozens of letters.”
Eddy later wrote a book: “FDR meets Ibn Saud” –in which he described how furious Churchill became and “burnt up the wires to all his diplomats in the area, demanding appointments with the Arab monarchs” and took the next plane to visit Ibn Saud.
Churchill knew, as did Roosevelt, that whoever controls the energy, controls the world economy. He couldn’t have let it go.
Great Britain was to make a comeback in the Middle East in the 1970s. One of its mechanism was Iran. Be it the Iranian prime minister Mossadegh or later Shah, they were becoming problematic for CIA, Mi6 and Mossad combine.
Now to FAQs (questions are in bold) :
How did Great Britain make a comeback in the Middle East?
A common answer would be that the US and UK controlled the energy market in cooperation. The US offered its military might and got petrodollar; UK had control of oil pricing and shipping lanes through Lloyds of London. But UK also did something very smart: It installed a puppet Sultan in Oman (Sultan Qaboos bin Said) on throne in 1970. To this day, Oman answers to UK.
How is Oman a help to the UK?
If the US has NSA, the intelligence and security agency for the UK is GCHQ (Government Communications Headquarters). It provides signals intelligence and cyber-security to the UK government and its armed forces. It’s hub in Middle East is in Seeb, a coastal village northeast of Muscat, Oman. In all Oman has three bases of GCHQ and it intercepts everything that passes through Strait of Hormuz.
What Oman has to do with Strait of Hormuz?
We are never told by our media and experts that the Strait of Hormuz is actually shared between Iran and Oman. Iran has the northern and Oman the southern Hormuz. The Strait is 39-km wide.
If so, why UK is not using its leverage through Oman to clear up Strait of Hormuz?
Well, you first have to know how Iran is closing the Strait of Hormuz. Is it through its navy? NO. Is it through its missiles? NO. Is it through its jets? NO. The Strait of Hormuz is actually closed because Lloyds of London have withdrawn the wartime risk insurance for trafficking ships.
Is Lloyds of London this big?
Now this Lloyds of London is apex of war-risk marine insurance market. It has controlled the maritime traffic in Middle East through insurance for over three centuries — 337 years to be exact. It didn’t withdraw insurance when Iran and Iraq fought for eight long years (1980-1988). It was still active during the 1990 Gulf War. It was still at service when in 2012 Iran was close to shutting down Strait of Hormuz. But this time, within 48 hours, on March 2, 2026, it withdrew the risk insurance.
Can’t the British government do anything? Why is Donald Trump so helpless?
Britain hasn’t cooperated with the US in this war. Donald Trump has even termed it a betrayal. Trump on his part has done many a thing: (a) He has offered own insurance to ships and even naval escorts if it need be; (b) He has lifted sanctions off Russia; (c) He has made America’s own oil available to the entire world; (d) A lot of his non-European allies are freeing up their oil reserves for the rest.
What do we make of Trump’s latest declaration of halting the US bombings for next 5 days?
On last Saturday, Trump in a social media post, said if Iran doesn’t stop, the US in 48 hours would bomb the energy installations including the biggest one, presumably the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant which could have environmental and radioactive consequences.
On Monday, Trump in another post, was upbeat over his talks with Iran and halted US military operations for another 5 days.
But Iran has denied it?
What else Iran could say? It can’t say that while the country is being bombed its leaders are on a call with the enemy. In a way, over the next five days, Israel could do whatever it could with Iran but without the assistance of the US. On the other hand, Iran has only Israel to deal with, without worrying the military might of United States.
But why then Iran is bombing Gulf countries?
Gulf countries are the cherry on the pie. Remember FDR and Churchill wooing Ibn Saud? In Donald Trump’s 2.0 presidency, the Gulf nations have already pledged 4 trillion dollars of investment in the United States. UAE remains committed to investing 1.4 trillion dollars. What if Gulf is being bombed and thus conveyed the message that the US is no help in securing them? That is what Financial Times and Chatham House in London are saying: And that it’s better they shift their allegiance and investments to the UK.
You insinuate that Iran is beholden to City of London which also controls its oil pricing?
That oil pricing is controlled by London is a fact. They would not like to let go this all-important tool of power which Trump has threatened with its own insurance offer. It’s common sense that controlling sea lanes, more so Strait of Hormuz, gives one immense power. One who control the energy markets, control the world.
So what is more important: Producing energy or controlling it?
One could produce as much as one wants. But it has to reach the seller. If sea lanes are not in your control, producing energy matters little. You could say others also can’t live without the energy. True. Butt controlling sea lanes is all-important factor in pricing. Problem in Middle East and prices goes up, that’s a clue why Middle East is never allowed to settle down. Fattening the insurance companies and the powers behind it.
What about Israel?
Israel owes its creation to Great Britain. It was Balfour Declaration in 1917. It’s a fact (So don’t get the notion that it was holocaust of WW2 which brought about Israel. UK had already committed to its creation in 1917).
So you imply that not just the United States but also UK have an interest in Israel?
Let’s look at it this way: Israel was a tool to keep Middle East in ferment. Military and pricing protection between the US and UK. It allowed the US to keep its 19 bases and 50,000 soldiers and aircraft carriers in the region. UK extracted its own honey with control of sea lanes through insurance and pricing. The more turbulence, the more premium you charged.
But Donald Trump is flipping the book. He wants the Middle East to be peaceful. The coming AI world would need the energy of Middle East. He thinks this manufactured religious conflicts in the region has drained United States almost completely. He doesn’t want the Europeans to shoot from the shoulders of the US; that its so-called allies get the profits while the US gets the blame.
So how this war would pan out in coming days. Has it ended?
It has not ended. Ending it is not in interest of Israel or Iran – or the powers behind them. They have been created to keep the region in flames through religious warfare. Israel, without the cover of the US, is unlikely to take out Iran. It has the option of nuking Iran though.
Do you think Israel could nuke Iran?
Difficult to say. It’s an existential threat to them, not as much to Iran. If Israel’s support system is gone, that is by the US and UK primarily, it’s so tiny, it’s a one-bomb country as Steve Witkoff recently said. Its best bet is that face-saving negotiations happen. It would take the threat of Russia for them to avoid the Nuke option and come to the negotiating table.
So you think we are far from winding down this war?
I do think this war still has many a twist. One has to look at who is in a better position vis a vis others. After all domestic audience would demand who won, who lost. Israel has taken a beating and so has Iran. Israel is nowhere near its goal in Iran which has also suffered but it now is on the move. It’s goal ought to be that Israel never again dare attack it. Trump’s objective too is unaccomplished. He wants this Israel-Iran kabuki theatre ended once for all. He has put all his political capital on this mission. He knows his UK ally is a thorn in this project.
Remember THIS IS WAR. Its players have invested in this project for over a century. There would be cost involved. Nobody knows who would emerge winners or if anybody would.
As a general reader, use this war to educate yourself.
Educate yourself that if you don’t read the UK angle in your understanding of the war from your media, geopolitical experts or social influencers, they are not worth your time.
Those who don’t mention that Mujtaba Khamenei has a $140 million dollar real estate empire in London, are not worth your time.
Those who don’t tell you that Israel created and financed Hamas are not worth your time.
Those who don’t tell you that Israel supplied 2 billion dollars of weapons in 1979 after Islamic Revolution in Iran are not worth your time.
We remain in a world where a few powers want to control the entire humanity. Millions of lives gone, nations like Libya, Syria, Iraq, Lebanon destroyed matter little them: As is genocide of the Palestinians.
For such powers, controlling what you see or hear is not too difficult.
Let your mind, rather than your ears and eyes, be your guide.
