How close are we to the end of Ukraine conflict?
I avoid using the world “war” though almost five full years and incessant noise about millions dead could make me appear a cave man who hasn’t stepped out to light for much of his life.
On this I would pick up the cudgels with readers in due course who, I suspect, largely read me to stay in touch with their abusive genes and colourful vocabulary they might have lost.
So Oslo of all places – no offence but it hardly seems a place where the fate of world is decided – has apparently cast the dye for this deal long in works.
On Tuesday (October 20, 2026), Zelensky took the stage with a few fellow minion European leaders : The big players — Trump, Putin, the E4 (Britain, Germany, France, Italy), EU – had chosen to watch from behind the curtains.
Zelensky sounded the sweetest in praising the Americans for granting Ukraine an Article-5-NATO-like security and that he would wait for the Russians reactions “a day after” once president Putin goes through the peace proposal in Kremlin.
Zelensky didn’t affix any “unless” or “if” conjunction like he always does to any peace move. All he awaits, it seems, is a formal affirmation from Putin to put the lid on this macabre chapter of human annals.
How does Zelensky appear compliant to Trump and Putin whom he apparently hates from his core?
Simply because Zelensky has run out of options.
Europeans, his prime backers, wouldn’t let him take the foot off the war machine. They want a World War to escape the wrath of masses if Ukraine capitulates. They couldn’t care less for Ukraine or Zelensky.
Zelensky is also virtually a captive to the Nazis who are running the show in Ukraine whose one goal from the days of Hitler has been to destroy Russia. The Azov Battalion, supposedly a volunteer force, wears the Nazis insignia on their uniforms.
Zelensky had played along these forces for the United States was also firmly behind him until the 2024 US polls when Donald Trump, against all odds, returned to Oval Office after four years in hibernation.
Trump foresaw for what it was. A clever European ploy to pit the United States against Russia over Ukraine in the hope that from the debris of this war, would emerge the hegemony of Europe as it did for the United States after the World War II.
Trump would have none of it and had a sensational summit with Putin in Anchorage within months of his second term. He stopped funds and drew down on the supply of weapons to Kiev.
Soon the world knew: Trump and Europe were now at cross-purpose. The one biggest hope Zelensky had in this conflict was the US support. That alone mattered. Europeans could thump their chests and jut out their chins forever but it doesn’t count on a battlefield.
I suspect somewhere in between, Zelensky went down on knees to Trump. The pressure was incessant; he was caught in a bind and like in any fight, your best bet is the strongest man. Zelensky has seen how Europeans submit to Trump’s command and catch cold on his one sneeze. Greenland happened after all.
If we buy into this theory, Trump would have offered two things which are Zelensky’s lifeline. One, that his life would be protected and no trial would put the noose around him. Two, that the billions he has swindled and umpteen luxury outposts he owns around the world would stay. A security guarantee to family – he has two children to go with his wife — must have been stamped and sealed.
All Zelensky is left to do is to withdraw from Donbass. Putin wouldn’t settle for less. Putin also wouldn’t settle any less for denazification of Ukraine. Zelensky could step aside for this to happen. Elections are long overdue in Ukraine and Zelensky would be happy to leave the hot seat as long as his life and billions are spared.
But yes, Donbass is a sticky affair. Zelensky won’t formally give it up. Putin too probably won’t insist on it: After all only 11% of Donbass is presently with Ukraine. It would veer towards Russia anyway soon.
Of course, Putin could be making some eye-catching concessions for Zelensky to boast to his audience. It could be land, recognition or both.
The Dog In the Manger
One could understand Trump and Putin, and now possibly Zelensky, eager for a deal. But would the Europeans let it pass?
Now that’s a big “If.”
European leaders would be writing their own death sentence if peace occurs.
They could no longer raise spectre of Russia’s threat and “after-Ukraine-it-is-us” propaganda for their masses. Europeans wanted Ukraine in NATO which Trump has more or less now secured though in different terminology. Europeans can no longer sell war to their citizens.
What they could do – and which I think they would — is to have a false flag attack like 9/11 which they could attribute to Russia.
They could choke off Kaliningrad which would force Russia into a war.
They know they can’t win such a war against a nuclear superpower but to not have a war is no better option. It’s a question of hegemony which the globalists have built over centuries and which Trump seems determined to strangle in company of Putin, and Xi.
Now to that little quibble with readers over terming it Ukraine conflict and not war.
We are told millions in Russia have died. If it was true, would Putin be this popular as he is among Russians? Do you think Trump or Modi would be around if thousands were losing lives every month?
Then, where are the pictures?
Everyday we are shown burning refineries in St. Petersburg or outskirts of Moscow.
What stops evil media from bringing in pictures of slain soldiers for readers?
They claim to know every little pause and sniff in a closed door meeting – why not pictures from battlefield?
Nobody would admit it but this Conflict had essentially been reduced to a drone conflict in the last two years.
The only purpose it seemed to be serving is to be a catalyst for the Europeans to plunge humanity into another World War.
