So who would Syria belong to in coming days?
Would it be the rebel groups, largely HTS, which presently control much of Syria in the aftermath of Bashar al-Assad?
Would it be Israel given how intense it’s air-bombing has been in last few days, some 500 air sorties; and that it is illegally now occupying a southwestern Syrian city, Queneitra?
Would it be the United States-backed Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) which control much of oilfields in the country’s northeast?
Or would it be Turkey which has invested heavily in the rebel groups not to allow Israelis a cakewalk? And eyeing a pipeline from Qatar which goes through Syria to Europe?
And what do we make of Iran and Russia, the former which since the Islamic Revolution in 1979, has had interest in Syria, not the least because it’s an important link of the Shiite Crescent? And Russia which has bases in port Tartus and Khmeimim in Latakia governorate, a largely Alawite province?
There is little to deny that all of these actors have a massive interest in Syria, not because it’s economy is booming or industry and agriculture is a goldmine.
The truth is Syria is in ruins.
It’s oils are in Kurds hands; agriculture and industry are rotting because of different pockets of various militias, and its financial reserves are so low that a soldier in Assad’s army was getting no more than $7 a month, a general some 40 dollars. Any wonder they saw little value in risking their lives in defence of Assad?
It’s worth mentioning that at least 8 million Syrians have fled their country since 2011 Civil War. Some five millions are in Turkey; a million at least in Lebanon; and within Syria itself more than a million are living in tents and camps. Damascus was having electricity for only an hour a day. In many ways, Syria was already groaning.
Yet Syria is important to these actors for reasons which ought to be apparent to you by now.
Israelis are afraid of an Islamic State on its borders; Turkey wants to settle the Kurdish problem; the United States has got thousands of ISIS and Al Qaeda prisoners in Kurd-controlled jails who they could use to tear any society’s fabric in the Middle East or elsewhere. And then there is this geographical location of Syria, facilitating Iraq’s oil supply out of Mediterranean, to say the least.
Israel and the United States have lost little time in making their intentions clear. Israel has warned rebels in power that they would pay heavily if they deal with Iran and arm Hezbollah. The United States promises hell to anyone who tries to hurt Kurds’ Syrian Democratic Force (SDF) in northeast. Israel too has come out in support of SDF.
The hypocrisy of Israel at this stage must be apparent to you ny now. It says it has attacked Syria in recent days because it doesn’t want the arms, aircrafts and naval power of Bashar al Assad to be used against Tel Aviv by the rebels in power. But they don’t see any problem in Kurds’ having these weapons. And how come this is not an “unprovoked aggression” against Syria when that’s what you villify Russia’s presence in Ukraine?
(Notice Israel has targeted military assets of Syria, without killing civilians — a thing they could have done in Gaza without killing innocents. That’s a proof it’s ethnic cleansing and not war.)
Turkey putting its pegs in place
The lead actor on the other side of coin is Turkey. It’s main goal is to settle the Kurds question once for all. It has paid little heed to the US warning in last few days; its proxy Syrian National Army (SNA) has been relentless in attacking SDF. And then the rebel Group in power in Damascus, the HTS, is largely Turkey funded and armed. The HTS also draws its manual strength from Turks. Some 30% of HTS fighters owe their origin to Central Asia.
So far Turkey had been attacking SDF from their own side of territory. Now they are sending some heavy artillery, weapons and air-defence systems inside Syria. HTS of course has no problem for Ankara are their sponsors.
These heavy weapons are going to stay in Syria. Tomorrow, for all we know, there could be a defense pact between Turkey and the new rulers of Syria. It would be Turkey’s way of getting around its NATO fetters and dealing with Israel.
Turkey’s Erdogan recently made a statement which is notable: He said there are only two long-standing world leaders: Russia’s Vladimir Putin and he himself. He also said that the next 2-3 months are going to be very important. He has said that he won’t allow Syria to fall into terrorists’ hands: In Erdogan’s eyes, Israel is a terrorist state; And Benjamin Netanyahu is Adolf Hilter reincarnate.
It’s now out that both Iran and Russia had warned Bashar al-Assad of imminent rebels’ move. Turkey had alerted Bashar the rebels had been hatching plan for six months and he must get them on the negotiating table. Both Iran and Russia had offered material and military help foreseeing the danger. But Assad had declined the offers. In last couple of years, Assad had been making overtures to Israelis and the United States — a page from the playbook of Gulf States who see the best chance of their survival through Washington.
It would be silly to believe that all this was happening and Iran and Russia were sitting on their bums. As I said, Iran had been investing in Syria since 1979. It won’t abandon it without a care in the world. Russia too had come to Bashar’s aid in 2015. Now that Israel has also warned HTS on Iran, it’s a clear sign a secret understanding between them the latter two is likely to have taken place. Russia doesn’t want to deviate from its bigger goal of leaving the United States and NATO with a bloodied nose in Europe. Syria it could deal with at its own convenience.
HTS’ leader, Abu Mohammad al-Julani meanwhile is saying that if Iran respects the Syrian people, they would have a strategic relationship. Julani has also been reassuring Russia on its bases in Latakia which is important to Moscow for its Africa operations.
So how it would pan out? Not so good for the Syrian civilians since the place is more ethnically and religiously divided than any other place in the world. Some 16 different Christian groups, a big Sunni population, 12 Shia groups with affinity to Iran, Alawites and what all you have. Israel and Turkey won’t let go on their pieces of bone with important side actors —the United States, Russia and Iran—bringing on their own heft.
It’s going to be bloody. And long. These Arabs have nothing to lose any further —and Israel a lot.
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