The guest appearance of rebel actors have done their jobs.
Now it’s the main starcast of Turkey, Israel and the United States jostling for pole position in Syria.
Hay’at Tahrir-al-Sham (HTS), and its leader Abu Mohammad al-Julani, have taken over almost all the area which was under Bashar al-Assad’s control.
The green part which you see in the map below is under HTS control. The yellow one is under the control of Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) which is primarily the Kurdish forces at the beck and call of the United States.
The little green circles you see on the western edges of the SDF-controlled area is the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) trying to neutralize the Kurdish threat represented with yellow in the map.
Turkey not only controls SNA but is also the force behind HTS so presently it has made massive gains on a swathe of Syrian territory through its proxies.
Now on to Israel
Even as Bashar Al-Assad was fleeing the capital Damascus, Israel had begun attacking inside Syrian territory from Mount Hermon.
Mount Hermon is a cluster of mountains, straddling Lebanon and Syria’s borders, currently manned by UN peacekeeping force in Israel-occupied Golan Heights.
Israel in the last few hours, has made 60 air strikes inside Syria on the excuse that they don’t want any hostile forces to take control of Mount Hermon which would be a threat to its Golan Heights, which in UN’s eyes, incidentally, belongs to Syria.
Israel claimed its aim was also to defend the UN peacekeeping force which is such a joke given how they treated and carried out murderous attacks on UNRWA in Gaza and Lebanon.
Israel also has put a sanguine face for the world, claiming it wants to protect the minorities.
This looks nothing better than a ruse since this Syrian revolution was bloodless. HTS has struck a conciliatory tone from the beginning; asking its armed soldiers not to hurt the institutions which belong to Syrian people; not to fire even celebratory rounds of fire in the air; and has let Bashar al-Assad’s prime minister Mohammad Jalali to continue in his job till the dust settles.
Yet Israel sees HTS as a hostile force. Not only HTS owes its success to Turkey but there are reports that HTS and Iran have reached a kind of understanding.
Israel is further distrustful of HTS leader Julani; its newspapers reporting that Julani’s parents had fled Golan Heights after Israel occupied it during the 1967 War and he essentially remains pro Palestinian and anti-Israel with the aim of freeing Golan Heights in his heart. Israeli voices are terming the HTS leader nothing better than a wolf in sheep’s clothing.
Call it Israel’s genuine fear of a rising Islamic power on its eastern borders, or its unhidden historic ambition of a greater Israel which includes Lebanon and Syria, or that it fears Iran’s supply to Hezbollah would continue uninterrupted, Tel Aviv has made some rapid moves in the last two days. Assad’s weren’t too bad for Israel after all since not a single hostile attempt on Golan Heights was made since 1970.
Now on to the United States
The United States has a military base (Al Tanf ) in Homs, Syria. The US has warned in last 24 hours that any attack on Kurdish-controlled SDF, backed by them, involving the north and north eastern Syria (depicted in yellow in the initial map) would be met with a harsh response.
This is a direct warning to SNA, controlled by Turkey. The Erdogan regime has always resented this Kurdish presence on its border and have long sought to neutralize it. Most of Turkey’s pieces on the present chessboard in Syria have fallen in favour. It’s HTS controls much of Syria and its SNA are pushing the Kurds (SDF) hard. It’s closer than ever to take a sizeable control of Syria.
That pits Israel against Turkey. Erdogan, despite his public utterances in favour of Palestinians in Gaza, has so far done little to help them. Indeed his oil supply to Israel is a major heartburn for Arabs including among his own Turkish masses. His public stance though is Turkey is severing all diplomatic ties with Israel.
Now the question is, would Erdogan let Syria go to Israel or would he stand by the side-actors in HTS and other rebel forces who have presented the Syrian bounty on a platter to him.
And then there are Iran and Russia who aren’t exactly indifferent to Syria. The foreign ministers of these two countries met the one of Turkey in Doha, Qatar just a couple of days before Bashar fell.
Did the three agree that HTS would keep facilitating Iran and Hezbollah in their mission? That no harm would come to Russia on its Tartus port in eastern Syria? That Turkey would finally do something concrete against Israel; and Russia would step in if Israel tries to crush HTS?
Be sure, this next phase of Syrian drama would unfold soon. And we might see a more proactive Iran and Russia in coming days. Yet it’s Turkey move which would be of utmost interest. HTS, it is apparent, would not suit Israel or the United States. Erdogan could either sell-out to them or give a shot of boost to Palestinian cause.
The Game has just begun, and not ended.
