Monday, December 5, 2022

This is a very bad news for India, Global South and Europe on brink

The world, including India, face a catastrophe due to the turn the Ukraine Crisis has taken this week. 

Your vile media hasn’t told you about the implications of Russia’s gas supply to Europe being sabotaged, now that both Nord Stream 1 and 2 are out of service. 

The gas pipelines which theoretically supply 30% of Europe’s gas needs from Russia were “sabotaged” at four places close to each other by explosives of up to 700kg TNT in the Baltic Sea this week, in the waters which fall in Danish and Swedish economic zones.

This takes Russia’s ability to manipulate gas supply to Europe out of its hand; this closes the scope of Germany to come on negotiating table which could dilute or stop fresh Sanctions being imposed; or return to Peace from the edge of potentially a Nuclear War; and which makes Europe sold lock, stock and barrel to the United States for its energy supply, incidentally at twice the rate of the Russians. 

Further, don’t delude yourself that India, and the rest of the world, is mothballed from its implications: 

  1. Europe in turmoil implies unceasing sanctions on Russia, implying endless disruption of supply chains for food and metals around the world; 
  2. With Europe handing over its leash to the US, the dream of a multipolar world through Eurasia is now in convulsion; 
  3. and India would not only dread US doubling down to force it to give up on Russia but also that such weaponizing of “sabotage”—violating international laws affecting other countries—could be the fate of other pipelines which Russia (in Siberia and elsewhere) and China (in Xinjiang and other BRI projects) or even India could be envisioning in near future.

Above all, it brings turmoil closer home to the Indian sub-continent and its over one-fifth of world’s humanity. 

So the questions which essentially concern readers/citizens are three: 

  1. Was it a sabotage?
  2. If yes, who did it?
  3. What now?

Was It A Sabotage

A background is necessary. 

The 1,224km Nord Stream stretching from Russia to Germany has been one of the main gas supply routes to Europe with a capacity of 55 billion cubic meters a year. 

The steel pipelines has a thick wall and coated with almost double the steel-reinforced concrete, each section of the pipe weighing 11 tonnes which turns into 25 tonnes after the application of concrete. 

It was filled with a total of 778 million standard cubic meters of natural gas, huge enough for the spillage to continue for next one week in the Baltic waters. 

The seismic data has confirmed it wasn’t an earthquake; nor the explosions were occurring in the rock below the seawater. 

Officials in Denmark, Poland, Sweden and other countries have stated it’s a sabotage. So said the Swedish prime minister Magdalena Andersson and her Danish counterpart Mette Frederiksen.

Importantly, Germany agrees!

Who Did It

Straightaway, the Western media put the sabotage on Russia in its plan to deprive Europe of its energy this winter. 

Such demonizing of Moscow is important to keep the Western citizenry behind their governments in the mission to destroy Russia and rule the world forever. 

The trouble is, nobody is explaining why Russia would sabotage its own pipelines worth a fortune? At a time when the supply of gas is the only leverage it has against the West; and when it’s so easily achieved by turning on and off the supply?

(Russia is badly hurt by the sabotage of Nord Stream pipelines and is taking up the matter in the United Nations today, on Friday).

The first sign that it could’ve been staged by the United States came from ex Polish prime minister (Radek Sikorski) who said “Thank You USA” posting a picture of the affected site. 

Further

  • There is this link of US president Joe Biden stating before Russia puts its boots inside Ukraine: “If Russia invades…then there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it.”
  • Susan Rice, the ex-US National Security Advisor, had said in 2014: “We want to change the structure of energy dependence…depend more on the North America energy platform..to have pipelines that don’t go through Ukraine and Russia.”
  • The universal amphibious assault ship USS Kearsarge was seen in the area just days before the sabotage. 
  • The Baltic Sea is as good as controlled by the NATO; 
  • The explosion was impossible to carry out for Russia with Swedish, Danish and Polish naval forces and its intelligence-gathering network, its sensors, in force: If anything these States are more likely to do the bidding of Washington. 

There is a precedent too of these pipelines being in the eye of its enemies. 

  • In 2015, the annual routine underwater survey of the Nord Dream 1 pipelines had come across a remote-operated vehicle rigged with explosives right next to one of the lines in Swedish waters. 
  • In 2021, when Nord Stream 2 was still being built, the Polish navy had interfered and put to danger the pipe-laying vessels; 
  • Only last year, Russia had raised the concern on security of its pipelines on global platforms. 

What Now

Well, the umbilical cord is cut; there won’t be an rapprochement between Germany and Russia or a Eurasian force of Germany-Russia-China coming together to spell the end of unipolar world order anytime soon. 

The three economic powerhouses are worth $50 trillion of GDP based on purchasing power parity (PPP) compared to $20 trillion of the United States!

(This has been the foundational geostrategy of the US: Never let Germany and Russia come together for then Washington’s control of the Europe would be over—and it would lose its foothold in world affairs.)

This would accelerate the deindustrialization of Germany, the cascading effect on European Union would be soon visible as Berlin finances it to the tune of 1.24 trillion Euro; the Old Continent would soon be gripped in recession.

It’s also worth noting that Germany is contractually obligated to buy at least 40 billion cubic meters of Russian gas a year until 2030: And the supply halted notwithstanding, it would still have to cough up the contracted amount to Moscow. 

The noise on this sabotage of Russian gas pipelines would likely be put to history’s baggage: 

That the Baltic Sea suffered many maritime battles in World War II and it became a dumping ground for damaged or expired munitions and chemicals. And that the leftovers could have caused the “leak” never mind laying underwater gas pipeline are extremely complex and intense projects: It involves endless surveys, study of hazards, planing routes, negotiations and permits from multiple countries which could’ve taken care of such dangers. 

The investigation would only begin once the leak is over.

There is uncertainty if and when the repairs on pipelines could be carried out. 

Those pipelines must be now filled with salty sea waters which is an invitation to corrosion and rust. 

The German media has already said that the pipes could have been rendered permanently inoperable.

It’s further muddled if one considered that Russia, which in theory should carry out repairs, is blocked by hostile Sanctions: It can’t really send its personnel or resources to examine or repair the gas pipeline. 

The truth is, this Energy War being played out in Europe could well be one of history’s gravest errors, to rank alongside the Treaty of Versailles after which the world was never the same again. 

Dread this approaching Winter: With prayers on lips. 

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