Monday, December 5, 2022

Ukraine: A lot could go wrong between now and Referendum

Vladimir Putin and Russia's defense minister Sergei Shoigu

Russia’s Special Military Operation (SMO) is now a War.

Over the next four days, the four regions of Lugansk, Donetsk, Zaporozhie and Kherson would vote in a referendum to join the Russian Federation. 

Be sure that Ukrainians would do everything they could to disrupt this from happening in coming hours. 

The NATO, which is pulling strings from behind, would do their best to gain some propaganda victory before the referendums while “The War” is still in the SMO phase. 

The referendums have been forced on these beleaguered provinces by some horrific attacks on the civilians allegedly by US M777 howitzer in Donetsk in last few days(Watch).

Once these regions are incorporated, they would cease to be a part of Ukraine. 

Russia would then be obliged to defend its territory to the extent that if required, it could use its formidable nuclear arsenal. 

Russia is now mobilizing 1% of its reserves (some 300,000 in numbers) and it could take three months for them to be in action. 

Yet, it would be a mistake to believe Russia could be caught napping for it already has formidable arsenal and men in place to defend these territories.

These reserves at best would be replacements on border and garrison roles. They would look to supplement the logistics, supply forces etc.  

The “Red Line” for Putin would be attack on the people once they become his citizens.

As long as the four regions are still technically under Ukraine’s sovereignty, Russia has limited options. But once they are part of the country, Russia is free to do whatever it could to defend its sovereignty. 

Ukraine on its own has no fresh troops or effective units, not to say tanks or a deterrent aviation control. 

It would be NATO and not them which one would see in action. 

Yet NATO would’ve to equip and transport a massive force to the front, and not those mercenaries and some rabble force which so far has been pressed from their side. 

There of course are long-range missiles and foreseeing it, Putin has warned everything would change in case they are pressed into action.“It’s not a bluff” and it be rather taken seriously for even the reserves Russia has summoned is three times the size of the British army. 

Russia’s defence minister Sergei Shoigu has already mentioned that the western command centres exist in Kiev. And that entire array of Nuclear military and civilian satellites by West are being used against Russia.  

Now they too would be Russia’s target if attacks on these four territories happens after the referendum. 

A lot of things could happen from now on. 

For one, there would be a surge in fleeing Ukrainians across the border now that all the bets are off. Everything is a fair target—roads, bridges, railways, power stations, dams, infrastructure etc. 

Belarus is almost certain to be dragged into this war which would evoke a response from the Poles and for all we know, Putin would activate CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization) of six post-Soviet states to involve their forces. 

Meanwhile, a massive propaganda blitz would keep the citizenry drugged in West. 

Nobody would tell them that all of this goes back to 2014 when a violent coup changed the regime in Kiev with puppets of West. 

Nobody would be made to reflect who failed the 2015 Minsk Agreement. 

Even the UN has admitted that 14,000 people have been killed in Donbas since 2014 but of course this would all be hidden from you. 

Or that 70% of Ukraine’s population speaks Russian; a third of its population has relatives in Russia; its eastern and southern cities are populated with people from all over Russia; or that they were subjected to a cultural genocide with no school teaching Russian; the language being also banned on TV, radio, cinema or in government institutions 

Yet these people under siege refused to bow, refused to study the distorted history, refused to stop celebrating Soviet victory over Nazis. 

Still the West would acquire the consent of its citizens through ceaseless propaganda even when a freezing winter is at door and humanity has never been closer to a Nuclear Armageddon as it is now. 

Citizens won’t be made to reflect why repeated red flags and offer of truce from the Russians were not entertained. 

Why war was chosen as an option at the cost of thousands dead and millions homeless.

A gnawing recession and human misery invoked in the hope that sanctions would induce a regime change in Russia if not its Balkanization. 

So the price of your silence against your governments could as well send up mushroom of radioactive dust on the horizon, destroying you and the home you call Old Continent. 

Yet you would be told that the victory is within reach. 

The truth is nobody wins a Nuclear War. 

And even if someone does, we won’t be around to see it.  

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