Bashar al-Assad has fallen. One or many Partitions of Syria loom.
This had been set in motion during the Arab Spring in 2011 before resolute support from Iran and Russia’s intervention in 2015 turned the tide in Assad’s favour.
It didn’t happen now. Neither Iran nor Russia saved the Assad regime. Why?
Let’s first look at the fall of Assad government through the rapid advances of armed rebellions from all parts of Syria.
These armed rebellions come under various banners of HTS, SNA, NFL, SDF etc but essentially you don’t need to get distracted in their orientations.
What you ought to bear in mind is that all of these rebel groups are controlled by either Turkey or the United States, both collaborators of Israel which has its Golan Heights on the western borders of Syria.
Still a few lines on these rebel groups won’t leave you blind-sided. HTS, or Hay’at Tahrir-al-Sham, Al-Nusra or Al Qaeda by other name, were the first off the block in capturing Aleppo.
The Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) seized its own moment in capturing territories in the north, including important Kuweires airport.
The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), ironically in Turkey’s crosshair yet backed by the United States, moved from north and northeastern Syria.
And then you have NFL (National Front for the Liberation of Syria) which made its gain from southwestern Syria.
Important cities like Hamah and Homs fell in a jiffy and from then on, Damascus was only a matter of hours.
Two things stood out in this fast-moving drama.
One, The army under Bashar al-Assad’s control offered no resistance. There was no bloodbath, no attrition, no trench warfare. Assad’s army simply vanished.
Two, Iran and Russia, who in popular imagination were steadfast supporter of Assad regime, chose to be spectators and watched the regime fall.
Both these aspects need elaboration before I touch upon if the fall of Assad affects Iran’s supply-line of arms and funds to Hezbollah through Syria and if the United States, and Israel, still have a lot and lot to worry behind this apparent “victory.”
Assad belonged to the Alawaite minority in Syria, comprising of only 8% of population. Alawaites are not Muslims though they claim to be a Shia sect. He ruled with an iron fist, was tyrannical and deeply unpopular. But he still held on to power and in a way it suited the United States and Israel.
Indeed, it was the United States which was behind the rule of both father and son, Hafez and Bashar al-Assad for over half a century. The idea was to have some sort of stability rather than a vaccum which could turn Syria into a fundamentalist, chaotic Islamic entity at the very door of Israel. Assad also facilitated a US army base in northeastern Syria, who wanted to be a player in the region and, as I said, supported the Kurdish forces.
Assad, though he clung on to power, was a deeply unpopular ruler of Syria. When rebels moved at a breakneck speed, Assad’s army simply wasn’t keen to back their tyrant ruler. The rebel groups offered them no persecution as long as they didn’t stand in the way. In last few days, Assad’s chief advisers were offering money to citizens to stand up on their behalf. But nobody moved.
Now on to the second puzzle: Why didn’t Iran and Russia come out in support of Bashar al-Assad?
This would be a lazy answer to say that Russia is too occupied in Ukraine to engage in Syria: Otherwise, they would’ve intervened like they did in the past. The thing to remember is that the civil war in Syria broke out in 2011 and Russia intervened only in 2015, a full four-years later. In present times, they were not prepared to help out Bashar when his own army wasn’t standing up for him.
Syria is important to Russia but only in a limited way. It sure wants Syria’s mediterranean port of Tartus, where the Alawaites have thronged, its last refuge and for all we know also of Bashar and his family. It definitely is not in Moscow’s interest if Iran is weakened.
But has Iran been weakened by the fall of Bashar? Does it mean that its’ supply line to Hezbollah is now crippled? Both are far-fetched assumptions. Remember, as the news of Bashar’s fall has filtered in, there is also this little report of Israeli forces fighting Syrian rebels in Golan Heights!
The thing is neither the United States nor Israel want a Syria which has descended into anarchy. And that’s exactly what Syria could be in the coming weeks and months. There are some rebel forces belonging to Syrian minorities who have created their outposts around Damascus. It’s a worry to Israel as it puts its Golan Heights, still recognized by the United Nations as a Syrian territory, under threat.
As for Iran’s supply line to Hezbollah being disrupted, here is the thing: Hezbollah also in the last 48 hours had begun sounding in support of the armed rebels. There were too many assassinations of Key Iranian and Hezbollah figures inside Syria in recent times to rule out Bashar’s complicity and that he was two-timing both Iran-Russia-Hezbollah and the United States-Israel.
The late developments have left Israel and the US extremely worried if Iran has struck some kind of a deal with some armed rebel faction. If it has, as it appears, the supply to Hezbollah won’t be an issue in future. Besides, how far is Tartus port from Lebanon for supply to continue uninterrupted?
Syria remains fluid. None of the players with interest in the region are too jubilant. Armed rebel groups are conscious that Turkey and the United States have used them and now could throw them after they have done their part in the drama. That’s what they did with mujahideen who deposed USSR-supported Afghan government in 1979, replacing them with Talibans. That’s also a reason why a few rebel groups would see more value in sticking by Iran.
All this translates into one or many partitions of Syria. Turkey’s Erdogan is keen to create a buffer zone in the north and keep Kurds at bay who are backed by the United States. Both Washington and Tel Aviv would rather have preferred a Bashar than a chaotic, unruly, anarchic Syria. Both Iran and Russia have kept their cards close to chest thus far. They would reveal it soon, be rest assured.
