Monday, April 15, 2024

Why US wants to take on Russia-China together 

Micronesia President David Panuelo, Fiji Prime Minister Josaia Voreqe Bainimarama, U.S. President Joe Biden, Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare and Papua New Guinea Prime Minister James Marape during the US-Pacific Islands Summit.

As an Indian do worry about where the world is headed. 

The United States fears the world in its fist would be prised open by Russia and China if unchecked by 2030. 

The greatest power in human history relies on its fake Dollar and military might to pin down nations who don’t follow their script. 

It happened to countless nations in Africa and Latin America, as it happened to closer your home with Saddam, Gadaffi, Assad etc as its with China and Russia today—and India tomorrow!

The Hegemon relies on one-two trick from its code-book on independent States: (a) Either inflict a regime change — fund activists, minorities, politicians, bureaucrats, judiciary, media etc to plunge the country into anarchy and then manipulate its own “man” into power who would gift them the “client state”; or (b) inflict a war in the name of “humanitarian intervention” to keep its boot on the throat of a recalcitrant State. 

If the US doesn’t do it, it can’t control land, labour or resources (food, water, energy, metals) which makes others poor and them super rich. 

The loosening of control would expose the fake currency that Dollar is which US prints whenever it wants to. As long as the dollar is world’s reserve currency, it doesn’t matter that Washington presently has debt to the tune of 30 trillion dollars. 

But if nations bypass Dollar in bilateral and multilateral trade, the House of Cards would come crashing down. 

The US has been trying the first trick of anarchy but in a single-party control that Russia and China are, it’s not working. It has now dragged Russia down in Ukraine, as it would shortly do with Taiwan for China. It has encircled Russia with five NATO nations and it’s in tearing hurry to create an Asian NATO to do the same to China in Pacific Islands. 

Now look at Asia-Pacific region on the map and you would clearly see the United States has invaluable assets in Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand to breathe down China’s neck. Modi’s India, despite being in QUAD, doesn’t share the same war goals. It has also not toed Washington’s line against Russia on Ukraine. 

Why Pacific Islands Are Now In US’ Eyes

Another test now awaits New Delhi: the United States wishes to rope in 15 Pacific Islands for its war games. Remember, it only has eight years to quell the challenge of Russia and China: And time is running out. 

The White House held its first summit with Pacific Island nations (Fiji, Marshall Islands, Mirconesia, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu, Cook Islands, French Polynesia and New Caledonia) on September 28. Vanuatu, Kiribati and Nauru stayed away. The observers, no prize for guessing, were Australia and New Zealand. 

The US played generous hosts—$810 million to the region, including $60 million aid to Pacific nations for 10 years which Kamala Harris promised in July. It didn’t let anyone forget either that $1,5 billion have been provided in the past decade. The US biggies, including Secretary of State Antony Blinken, have been hopping on planes to this region this year. It’s “Peace Corps—a volunteers programme—is set to return to Fiji, Tonga, Samoa and Vanuatu. 

Amidst the pompous gestures (recognizing the Cook Islands and Niue as sovereign states) and words by Joe Biden (“America…and the world depends on your security…”) the US had to drop its insistence on new security relationships from the Declaration on the US-Pacific Partnership at the insistence of Solomon Islands. 

US’ Bloody History In Region

Most Islands obviously don’t want to get caught in the Battle of the Bigs. Besides, there is that bloody history which is too painful for these till-now ignored Islands. 

The United States during the 20th century organized scores of badly regulated tests of nuclear weapons and dumped nuclear waste in the Pacific Ocean which is prefers to call its “own lake.” The military goals were more important for the Washington than the welfare of region’s citizens. 

We have it from the documents of a UN special rapporteur in 2012 that the US did permanent damage to the Marshall Islands through nuclear tests carried out for more than a decade. 

A UN fact-finding mission found that citizens of the Islands continued to suffer in health from the 67 nuclear tests conducted by the US in the Islands between 1946-1958. And that it has permanently contaminated their land. (Some have even suggested that nuclear pollution of the Marshall Islands is much worse than in Chernobyl and Fukushima.)

These are organized and repeated human rights violations. The countries in the region want acknowledgements and reparations. Military arrangements aren’t good for them. They also can deduce that the fund offered is less than 6% of the $15 billion granted to Ukraine this year. 

And then there is this elephant in the room: China!

Unlike the US’ war games, China has promoted beneficial cooperation with regional players for decades now. 

Between 1992-2021, the trade between China and the Pacific Island nations grew from $153 million to $5,3 billion—or in other words, expanding 30 times in 30 years. 

Its BRI (Belt and Road Initiative) has clearly outshone the US, Australia, New Zealand and Japan for the region. It helped in Covid pandemic as it does with climate change through the Pacific Island Forum (PIF) board. It has already offered 10 Island nations support in policing, security, fisheries, data and a free trade zone. It has been attending the Post-Forum dialogue since 1990. 

China, as we all know by now, is deeply anxious on Pacific Ocean. It has no deep access to it: cut off by these Islands and Australia. (That’s why letting go control of Taiwan would be a blow in the gut for the Beijing, a “Red Line” so to say.)

The Pacific Islands are now aware of their geostrategic importance. But they want to be players and not pawns. It’s aware that the the South Pacific region is one of world’s richest and most active fishery areas. It knows Beijing brings infrastructure, education, culture, tourism, science and technology—with no ideological strings attached—to the table. The US on the other hand, despite its excesses in the region, could hurt with “colour revolutions” on Islands who step out of line. (A case in point is that out of $1.5 billion provided in the past decade, as much as $180,000 went to support journalists and propaganda!)

One problem to the US’ goals is that its citizens know little about these Islands. In order to push its agenda, it needs to rope them in. (Hence the Peace Corps to exchange students and professionals visits, promote tourism: In other words people-to-people ties.) It already occupies Guam, Saipan and Okinawa. A few more Pacific military bases would not hurt. It would play on Beijing’s fears and anxiety and hopefully their preventive action—like Russia’s Special Military Operation—could be sold to Western citizens for a counter military “humanitarian intervention” to commence.

The US-in-hurry wants to take on Russia and China simultaneously. 

That’s why they want to build an integrated system of alliances, between European and Asian allies, between NATO and “Asian NATO”, if you may. 

That’s why they invited its Asian allies to the NATO Summit in Madrid in June. 

That’s why NATO now openly says it deals with Asian affairs and aims to be a global alliance. 

By projecting the Russian threat to Europe and China’s fear to Asia, a dual threat, it could bring all of them together in a Bloc, much, much bigger than the one during the Cold War. 

That is where we are headed and that’s where we the citizens need to rise to support the Indian government who would face a cauldron of fire. 

It’s so close we could feel the heat. 

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