BJP is looking for a windfall in the 4th phase of West Bengal assembly polls

Bharatiya Janata Party could win upto 33 of 44 seats which go under voting in the fourth phase of the Bengal assembly polls on Saturday. It would mark the completion of elections in Cooch Behar (nine) and Alipurduar (five), while the remaining seats of South 24 Parganas (11), Howrah (nine) and Hooghly (10) would be settled too. 

Cooch Behar

All constituencies of Cooch Behar, but for Sitai, is expected to align with the saffron party. The promises of BjP has touched a chord with the populace here. Sitai had shifted from Congress to Trinamool in 2016. Even if Trinamool Congress prevails in Sitai this time, the margin of victory would be a credible indicator of people’s confidence in Trinamool Congress.  This region was in news only hours back (April 7) for attack on BJP state president Dilip Ghosh’s convoy allegedly by TMC goons with stones and bombs. Udayan Guha of Trinamool is expected to face a distinct defeat from Dinhata this year. 

Alipurduar

This district is a BJP stronghold from 2016. Alongwith Falakata assemblies, Alipurduar had shifted to the Saffron Party during 2019 Loksabha elections. The rest three assemblies were with BJP even in 2016 assembly polls. 

South 24 Parganas

Eleven remaining of 31 assemblies of South 24 Parganas would go on poll on Saturday and it includes notorious ones like Metiabruz, Bhangor, Budge Budge, Maheshtala. All this could test the nerves and competence of Election Commission. Demography in all these for assemblies have changed dramatically and a large section of people don’t seem to have protection of State’s law or order. Metiabruz is arguably the Jihadi face of Kolkata. This place needs to be cleaned up with unmatched might not just for Bengal but for national security. 

Bhagnor not just is infested by radical Islamists but also CPI-ML. It’s a deadly combination. It succeeded in disrupting a huge project of Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd in the name of Jamin, Jibika, Poribesh O Bastutantra Raksha Committee (Committee to protect land, livelihood, environment and ecosystem) in January 2017. Such forces have dragged West Bengal backwards in all sectors in last six decades. 

Budge Budge and Maheshtala allegedly store arms and bombs. Interiors of Budge Budge are known to manufacture fire crackers. But there are lethal crackers too. This is a fortress of Mamata Banerjee’s nephew Abhishek Banerjee and illegal weapons stores are aplenty. 

Behala Purba and Behala Paschim could get interesting for Saffron Party this year. There is a huge antipathy against the TMC candidate Partha Chatterjee. Usually, Behala is a stronghold of TMC. But the BJP’s undercurrent began flowing since 2014 though there is not enough statistics to back the claim. Behala Purba usually votes for Ratna Chatterjee as she performs at ground level, accessible to her people. But rumour is that Ratna herself might want BJP to win this time. 

Jadavpur is teeming with refugees from East Pakistan aka Bangladesh. This has people who are Communist by orientation. Sujan Chakraborty is the defending MLA who has been seen in the company of South Bengal’s Rohingya-import-in-charge Mahammad Kamruzzaman on the table of Muslim Intellectuals’ Meet. Logic would suggest that local populace should dislike CPM and TMC’s stand with Muslims. But when have logic worked on Ism-oriented ones, more so Communist? If they still vote for BJP, it would be an indication of an electoral maturity. 

Kasba, likewise, is infested with infiltrators. Illegal drugs trade is rampant. Yaba, the drug widely used in Bangladesh, has been seized by Kolkata Police in Panchasavar, Kasba in recent past. Still, Kasba is likely to vote for CPM’s Shatarup Ghosh while Tollygunge would perhaps elect BJP. 

Amongst Sonarpur Uttar and Sonarpur Dakshin, the former might still go with TMC while the latter is likely to opt for the Saffron Party. Prime minister Narendra Modi’s rally on April 4 in Sonarpur apparently has caused a massive impact. How big has been the impact for sure, we would know on May 2. 

Howrah

Out of nine assemblies of Howrah, BJP and TMC would slug it closely on at least three seats. Of the remaining six, at least four (Bally Shibpur, Domjur and Howrah Uttar) might go for BJP while two (Pachla and Uluberia Purba) could settle with Trinamool Congress. 

Hooghly

Amongst 10 assemblies of Hooghly, as many as 8-9 could fall in BJP’s lap. Chanditala alone looks the one where TMC could smile. Champdani too could re-elect high profile Abdul Mannan of Congress though in 2019 Lok Sabha polls, Congress was beaten.