(This is the second part on Bengal assembly polls in light of emerging new data. The first one could be read here—Editor).
West Bengal’s post poll violence appears distinctly communal in nature. Ground facts about lives, properties, agricultural land, open grounds being illegally captured, dignity of women being stripped by goons belonging predominantly to a particular community are blood-curdling. While Dhimmi Hindus are being used as frontline oppressors in some places to oppress those Hindus who voted against TMC, the heads controlling them belong to a specific community.
For example, Sukanta Pramanik of Falta had been picked up by the local police and tortured by policemen who are Hindus. But the instigator is said be one local mafia who was referred to be these policemen to Sukanta’s wife to approach and settle the issue and have her husband released. This mafia, of a particular community, is ravaging the whole of Bengal, more so the ones near the border.
Sixty-seven Hindu voters of a particular booth of North 24 Parganas’ Minakhan assembly constituency had fled from their place immediately after poll results came out on May 2. Minakhan is located near Basirhat border. As they wanted to return to their own place, Sadhan Baj was asked to send his wife Pinky Baj to some ‘Mudassar’ for some days as barter value, it is learnt.
The State is in panic and living a prolonged nightmare.
Demography of Bengal’s near-border assemblies changed steadily due to ceaseless infiltration cornering original Hindu inhabitants of these places. A section of original Hindu inhabitants as a result, got involved in appeasing infiltrator-patron lobbies to avoid day-to-day toxic conflicts and also to earn illegitimate bucks. Infiltration-industry turned into a huge source of corruption benefitting not only Muslims but also sections of Hindus who turned Dhimmis.
A vicious cycle had thus formed which continually threatened existence of SC-STs of near border assemblies. Hindus are losing ground due to orchestrated, well-planned, TMC-backed infiltration in which Dhimmi Hindus too associated themselves with pro-infiltrators either out of fear or out of greed. A large section of threatened Hindus, this year, grossly demonstrated electoral rejection of Trinamool Congress. Anticipating such rejection, Muslims of Bengal regimented behind Trinamool Congress turning West Bengal election into episodic violence.
Given below please find important takeaways from analysis of Election Data procedural details whereof had been provided in the earlier piece.
Finding 1: Considering 75% average overall voter turnout, it becomes apparent that 45% of casted votes came from Hindus, 29% from Muslims & 1% from other communities.
Finding 2: Out of 100% of the existing Muslim electorates of West Bengal (which is estimated at 31% of the total number of electorates of West Bengal), approximately 91% appears to have voted for TMC, 1% to BJP & 2% to Lefts, Congress, ISF, NOTA & Independent candidates combined. About 6% of Muslim electorates abstained from voting. While 32.8% Hindu electorates abstained from voting, (refer to a separate piece for substantiation of this claim) only 6% of Muslim electorates did the same. Electoral regimentation is a by-product of electoral discipline amongst Muslims in which Hindus lag behind inherently.
Finding 3:— Out of 100% cast Muslim votes, (i.e. considering all casted Muslim votes as 100% Muslim vote, which, as stated earlier, is about 29% of total number of electorates), 97.1% went to TMC, 1% to BJP & 1.9% to Lefts, Congress, ISF, NOTA & Independent combined. This implies near-complete consolidation of Muslims behind TMC. However, those facing post-poll wrath of ruling party are Hindus. Who are the perpetrators? Muslims in reality, though frontline oppressors include Dhimmi Hindus in some places.
Doesn’t data corroborate with communal nature of West Bengal’s post poll violence? Data would indicate it clearer when booth wise mayhem corroborated with ECI’s booth wise data & voters’ list of corresponding booths in different districts of West Bengal would be elucidated later in separate pieces.
Finding 4:— While 83.8% of Hindus who cast their votes, voted against TMC indicating huge anti-incumbency against the ruling party, (refer to a separate piece for substantiation of this claim), 97.1% Muslims voted for TMC. While anti-incumbency existed amongst Hindus, it didn’t exist amongst Muslims.
Does this mean ruling legislation of Trinamool worked only for Muslims and not for Hindus? Does election data analysis reveal Trimanool’s Muslim-appeasement? Why did 42% Hindus of Bengal opt to vote out TMC? What was the root cause of their refusal? As Hindus and Muslims of West Bengal grossly differed in their electoral choice, it indicates clouds of crisis hovering over the horizon of West Bengal’s democracy. In today’s Bengal, one community happy and other grossly unhappy violates many fundamental principles of the Constitution of India. Can Union of India remain silent spectator in such a situation? Or need to act upon prescriptions of the Constitution to tackle such crises on time?
Finding 5: Muslim voters aggrieved of Trinamool Congress too didn’t vote much for BJP. 65.52% of those Muslims who voted against Trinamool, voted for Left, Congress, ISF, NOTA and Independent combined while 34.48% of anti-Trinamool Muslims voted for BJP. This shows Muslims not only consolidated for Trinamool, they grossly rejected BJP alongside. Otherwise, why even anti-incumbency Muslims predominantly rejected BJP?
Is such rejection based on lack of Governmental co-operation? Answer is in the negative. No report of BJP-run Governments’ negative bias against Muslims to allot Governmental schemes to them have ever featured in public domain. While eligible Muslims have not been selectively deprived from doles and schemes announced by any Government run by BJP anywhere in India, Muslims’ blunt refusal to BJP in West Bengal must be having some cause beyond Governance. However, why should anything else other than Governance influence electoral outcome of any place, is a legitimate question.
Moreover, why should Muslims indulge in grabbing Hindus’ solid & liquid properties, lives & women after a mere election, is the question that’s haunting not only Bengal but India. Did they perceive election to be a war and hence, indulge in post-war plunder in medieval manner? West Bengal is a State, 31% populace of which formed a warlike regiment thinking election to be a war. Should such a State which doesn’t perceive democracy in right spirit have the privilege to participate in any further election in short future? Union of India may please ponder over such pertinent, theoretical arguments as such arguments form the very basis of democracy.
Finding 6:— As per Election Commission, Trinamool accumulated 47.9% of total cast votes of West Bengal assembly election 2021. According to the inference drawn from our own data analysis, out of this 47.9% votes, about 37.5% came from Muslims, 9.7% from Hindus & 0.7% from other community voters.
[About 6% of total Muslim Electorates didn’t cast their votes implying that those Muslim electorates who did, constitute about 94% of total Muslim electorates. 97.1% of this 94% cast in favour of TMC and overall average voter turnout was assumed to be 75%. Hence 97.1% of 94% of 31% out of total 75% = 37.5% approximately]
Finding 7:— Considering 28,735,400 votes of Trinamool Congress to be 100%, 78.3% of those came from Muslims, 20.3% from Hindus & 1.5% from other community voters.
Trinamool’s win is based on Muslim votes and the masterminds of Hinducidal mayhem in Birbhum, South 24 Parganas, North 24 Parganas, Cooch Bihar, Pashchim Medinipur, Purba Medinipur and elsewhere are predominantly Muslims barring one or two exceptions.
As Muslims voted Trinamool to power, have they demanded leverage to vandalize Hindus’ lives and properties in return? And since there is regular insistence by the Governor of the State, as well as other on-ground reports, that police and administration are inactive, does it mean that that there is a systematic inducement to them to carry out their blood-curdling violence against Hindus?
(To Be Continued)
( Debjani Bhattacharyya is a columnist who’s a keen observer of politics and social changes.. A communication-strategist by profession having special aptitude for analytical jackknifing of information, Debjani is a Pharmaceutical Engineer & a Management Professional by her credentials.
Analysis of data & information for generating insights for policy planning is a passion while her other significant area of interest is the Constitution of India and its interpretations thereof. She’s a voracious reader with enormous affinity towards Classics of Bengali Literature. She is an opinion-maker on social media through her blog, twitter and facebook. )