It’s a deal Israel and the United States had not bargained for.
When Tel Aviv saw Palestinians as dumb mutt to be beaten to pulp, these two complicit didn’t reckon Hamas holding on for more than two weeks; or Hezbollahs and Houthis to be of any consequence if they rose at all in defence of the Gazans.
Now Hamas remain on their feet after 16 months; Hezbollahs have forced Israeli forces to abandon their ground offensive in Lebanon and Houthis are raining hell from the sky.
The only measure of victory for a resistance group is their ability to survive — and boy! Survived they have.
The latest Houthis strike was a hypersonic ballistic missile (Palestine 2) which targeted the Ben-Gurion airport, some 15km southeast of Tel Aviv; and the downing of a U.S super drone (MQ-9 Reaper), 13th such instance in about a year, each one valued at an eye-popping $32 million.
Hypersonic missiles? by Houthis who do not have advanced missile production facilities? From a devastated land where half of its 34 million population is starving out of the US sanctions and a devastating decade-long proxy war which ended not long ago.
Hypersonic missiles, make no mistake, is not just another high-tech weapon. They are dead accurate, harder to shoot down having a speed of Mach 8 (the sound of speed is only Mach 1), and could be fired from thousands of kilometres away which Yemen is from Israel (over 2,000km).
For over a year, the Houthis have been successfully blocking the maritime trade in Red Sea and neither the US nor UK, nor western naval forces have been able to do a fig about it.
It must tell you how well-equipped Houthis are with anti-ship weaponry, with its drones, cruise and ballistic missiles, the coastal radar system, the technological advancement which empowers it with data on maritime traffic to the benefit of its scouting units.
Listen what those with the skin in the game are saying about Houthis (not your dumb newspapers):
“The cost of daily drone and missile attacks on Israel is so low that they are able to win this war”: Yoel Guzansky, ex member of Israel’s National Security Council.
“Houthis’ capabilities…are getting scary…the rebels are brandishing increasingly sophisticated weapons, including missiles that can do things that are just amazing.” : Bill LaPlante, Pentagon’s top weapons buyer.
So welcome to this new shift in the Axis of Resistance: Yemen is now a forward base of Iran and it has a lot going for it. (a) It’s too remote to be bombed daily by the Zionist pilots unlike Lebanon; (b) It’s more coherent and politically stable than Assad’s Syria since 80% are Houthis and Shia-affiliated; (c) It could effectively target American, Israeli and Western bases in the Gulf (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, UAE) as well as in Africa (Somalia, Djibouti, Ethiopia and Eritrea).
Remember the abundance of US bases in Horn of Africa are only 20 miles wide on an average from the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in control of the Houthis! It means the US and Western backbone of Israel would have two fronts to confront simultaneously: Yemen and Iran. And that’s a fool’s business.
In essence we are looking at entire Global South including the Middle East becoming a minefield for the US and its military bases.
And that should tell you about Iran’s broader strategy: A massive maritime chokehold over rivals which extend from the Persian Gulf/Strait of Hormuz to Red Sea/Bab el-Mandeb Strait: A fertile stretch for anti-US forces to gather, collude and hurt deep.
And how it interests Russia!
Already the Red Sea blockade has been a stunning success. Some 12% of global trade is affected. Western commercial vehicles are browbeaten into taking longer, costlier routes; several American aircraft carriers and European warships have evacuated West Asia.
And what answer the US has to this emerging dilemma where the hunter has become the hunted? Could it send its boots into every tunnel in the region to kill those who are firing drones and rockets? If it couldn’t subdue Taliban, what chances it has against a much powerful Houthis and Hezbollahs? Could US commit the number of men and weapon required for a war which could drag on for years? Against Yemen which is big (roughly the size of France), with a diverse topography of coastal planes, mountains and deserts, and has a coastline which is suitable for supply from friendly powers.
And those neocons dreaming of hurting Iran ought to remember Iraq which was five times less the size of Iran and it still cost the US a decade and trillions of dollars for little to show. Today is two decades off from those disempowered days of the Axis of Resistance.
All this could have been averted had the genocide not been set in motion; the seize on Gaza was lifted; tens and thousands of innocent Palestinians were not butchered; humanitarian aids were accessible; and the rest of the world was not left seething in rage and helplessness. Now a burning flame of revenge has been lit and it engulfs not just the Arabs but the rest of humanity.
