Why is China behaving like a monk in West Asia, the Middle East to us?
Well, that is what all intelligent international players should do as Iran and Russia are presently doing in the region.
The so-called geopolitical experts are berating Russia for abandoning Bashar al-Assad in Syria.
But nobody takes note of Vladimir Putin’s pertinent line that he couldn’t be more Syrian than the Syrians are.
There simply is no Syria: It’s a fake geographical presence on world map, divided among ethnicities you can’t count on both hands, and it has nothing to offer to the world.
Syria has nothing to offer to the world, you would ask. Not it’s oil, not its phosphates, not the valuable Shiite link to militias in the region? Not the Tartus port or Al Khmeimim air base to Russians? Then why is Turkey huffing and puffing on its north and why Israel is almost carrying out a panic attack on its military assets? And why the United States is holding ground on Al-Tanf military base and propping up Kurdish rebels, the SDF (Syrian Democratic Force)?
Remember, I said initially the “intelligent players” in which I count Russia and Iran, and China. They are different from dumb actors or prisoners from the past.
Look at from Russia’s point of view: They came to Bashar al-Assad’s aid in 2015 because ISIS was threatening to be a true Caliphate which could burn up its Caucasus region. They made a temporary Al Khmeimim air base, which remains temporary to this day, and bombed the hell out of ISIS. As for the Tartus port and its utility for Russia’s Africa operations, well Moscow has multiple options: Sudan for instance and what about North South Transport Corridor? Aren’t they better options that Tartus?
Your favourite geopolitical experts won’t tell you that Tartus port is primarily a mean to distribute Syria’s valuable phosphate around the world which is controlled by a Lebanese guy (Massad Boulos) whose son Michael is married to, guess who, Tiffany Trump, the president-elect’s daughter! Talk of Russia-US cooperation on a win-win deal.
Russia would get into Syria only when the rebels in power now, the HTS, a remnant of Al Nusra/ISIS, gets out of its geographical borders. And Moscow doesn’t have to put its boots on the ground—technology has evolved since 2015. It could shoot from its Caspian Sea or Black Sea base to get the job done. At present Syria is too small an issue to lose breath. Russia has more important business to beat NATO and the United States soon enough.
And why would Russia mind if Turkey played a role in overthrowing Bashar al-Assad? Turkey is the important hub of Russian oil to central and eastern Europe. Turkey has got a Nuclear Power Plant (Akkuyu) courtesy Russia. The trade between the two has blossomed; Turkey remains the favourite touristy venue for Russians. As long as Turkey doesn’t cross the path of Iran, Moscow is cool.
Iran? Same with Tehran. Things are looking up for Iran and its’ growing relationship with Russia and China. It has a strategic agreement lined up with Russia next year. Hundreds of Iranian companies now have a foothold in Russian port of Astrakhan on Caspian Sea. Trade on shared maritime space is beginning to boom. Iran is at the centre of a new world emerging out of the US’ shadow. Why lose breath over Syria?
There are two main arguments forwarded for Syria’s significance to Iran. One, is that New Syria could disrupt arming and beefing up of Hezbollah. Two, the arch enemy Israel, with its expansionist genes, would be next to Iran’s door. Both frankly don’t carry much weight.
Hezbollah’s fight against Israel is not a day’s fight-to-finish. Remember Hezbollah calls itself a resistance force. So this resistance was there before the ceasefire and this resistance would continue after the ceasefire. There is no letting up on Israel now its apparent that the Israeli army with boots on the ground is useless. And as Hezbollah has now said, they would find a way around the New Syria.
As for Israel’s threat to Iran, well, the dynamics has changed. Israel’s Iron Dome is finding it difficult to replenish its anti-air missiles from the waves of rockets and drones it receives since the supply from the United States takes time. Israel could only carry out its air strikes on Iran from afar but the counterpunch from Tehran has thrown them in a tizzy. And dare they look to attack Iran’s “nuclear” facility—Russians won’t take it kindly at all and Tel Aviv have been conveyed so in no unclear terms.
And what about Israel’s lifeline, the United States? Both are living in a bubble. Israel gets giddy with its bombings, assassinations and pager attacks but none of its military objectives are achieved. Hamas exists, Hezbollahs exists, Israel is a pariah to world community, its diplomatic currency is in abuse. Israel drafting reserves in its army is taking away manpower from other sectors: It’s economy has taken a major hit, so has its tourism, its well-heeled citizens are thinning out for Greece, Italy and elsewhere, the north Israel remains a wasteland and the rest of citizenry is in a perpetual state of fear and anxiety. Propaganda keeps its war-criminals going as it does their partners-in-crime, the United States.
The US Middle East policy is in tatters. The anger in Arab Street over Gaza could take out Jordan and Saudi Arabia’s monarchy: After all as Syria has shown, revolutions happen in these regions overnight. Half of Jordan’s population is refugee Palestinians—its sitting on a powderkeg.
Who else is left? Ah, Turkey. Erdogan sure wants to settle the Kurds (PKK) problem. The HTS was propped with that in mind. That pits it against the United States —imagine the two biggest NATO powers fighting a proxy civil war in Syria. Beyond it, Ankara has no big interest in Syria.
The Middle East of today is full of failed or still-born states: Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, Libya etc. The Arabs states are sliding back to the 16th century. (Egypt alone is holding out but only on paper). Intelligent players like Russia, Iran and China are watching this drama to play itself out. China’s BRI can wait. When the Middle East finally hollows itself out, they would see who deserve their attention. Till then, why bother?
